The Inflation Target
24 views • 6/5/2025
How the SARB decided to push for a lower inflation target to 3% flat
00:00 - 00:05 | So, we're at the MPC meeting, right? |
00:05 - 00:07 | Lesetja walks in |
00:07 - 00:10 | He says, "Guys, I've been thinking..." |
00:11 - 00:16 | "People are laughing at our 3–6% inflation target." |
00:17 - 00:21 | "It's too wide!" he exclaims. |
00:21 - 00:24 | "Too wide!" |
00:29 - 00:31 | "And too high!" |
00:31 - 00:34 | "Other central banks are mocking us!" |
00:38 - 00:40 | "Mocking us!" |
00:41 - 00:47 | He wants to narrow it down. |
00:47 - 00:50 | He wants to lower it! |
00:50 - 00:56 | Maybe aim for 3% flat. |
00:58 - 00:59 | Three percent! |
00:59 - 01:01 | Flat! |
01:04 - 01:06 | No band! |
01:06 - 01:08 | No tolerance! |
01:13 - 01:14 | So |
01:14 - 01:16 | So I ask |
01:16 - 01:20 | "Won't that spike real yields?" |
01:21 - 01:27 | He shrugs, "That's Treasury's problem." |
01:35 - 01:36 | "Let them deal with the debt implications," he says. |
01:36 - 01:39 | "We need credibility!" |
01:41 - 01:44 | I say, "But Lesetja" |
01:44 - 01:47 | "Won't everyone object?" |
01:47 - 01:49 | He smiles |
01:50 - 01:53 | "We'll produce a document." |
01:54 - 01:56 | "It'll say..." |
01:56 - 01:58 | "..lowering the target lets us cut rates..." |
01:58 - 02:02 | Just like that - "Cut rates!" |
02:05 - 02:07 | Cut! |
02:10 - 02:11 | And then he says |
02:11 - 02:13 | He says |
02:15 - 02:17 | "It will boost growth" |
02:17 - 02:20 | "and reduce our debt" |
02:21 - 02:28 | "Rating agencies will love it." |
02:29 - 02:30 | Really? |
02:30 - 02:32 | Yes - they'll buy it! |
02:36 - 02:39 | "Everyone will issue supportive statements." |
02:40 - 02:42 | "Then Treasury can't say no." |
02:50 - 02:55 | I ask, "But what if inflation doesn't fall as expected?" |
02:56 - 02:58 | Yes, an obvious question... |
02:58 - 03:04 | Yes, so he looks angry and replies |
03:04 - 03:09 | "Then we'll hike rates to maintain credibility." |
03:09 - 03:11 | Can't make this up |
03:16 - 03:20 | "We'll show everyone what the SARB is all about." |
03:23 - 03:26 | "Discipline and commitment!" |
03:31 - 03:36 | "Let's make this happen - Meeting adjourned!" |
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