The DFS Sim Wars have Arrived
1,101 views9/5/2023
Sims are taking the DFS world by strorm, who will win is up for debate.
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| 00:00 - 00:03 | Everyone's talking about the new simulation products |
| 00:04 - 00:05 | Stokastic, ETR, SaberSim, and RunTheSims |
| 00:05 - 00:07 | have launched their newest tools. The DFS world is about to be revolutionized! |
| 00:08 - 00:12 | We plan to aggregate all of the sims |
| 00:12 - 00:15 | which should keep us ahead of the curve and dominate the competition |
| 00:17 - 00:19 | From aggregating projections to aggregating sims, brilliant. |
| 00:19 - 00:21 | How are our lineups fairing? |
| 00:24 - 00:26 | There's a snag. |
| 00:27 - 00:28 | The simulations… |
| 00:31 - 00:33 | The hypothetical field we simulated against |
| 00:34 - 00:36 | Its not even close to what the field actually played. |
| 00:53 - 00:58 | Anyone who is still building lineups by hand while sitting on the toilet, please leave the room |
| 01:13 - 01:15 | Which of you was in charge of projected ownership |
| 01:15 - 01:17 | U didn't even do the simple check of multiplying ownership by salary |
| 01:18 - 01:23 | If you used these ownerships the average total salary spent by the field is $55K |
| 01:25 - 01:28 | That's $5K over the salary cap |
| 01:29 - 01:31 | How about this field construction |
| 01:31 - 01:34 | Did anyone consider combos they would play? |
| 01:34 - 01:37 | Projecting them to play 3 RBs from the same team? |
| 01:37 - 01:40 | Have you ever heard of correlation |
| 01:40 - 01:42 | Correlations are difficult, we tried our best |
| 01:42 - 01:46 | Why didn't you use play by play simulations |
| 01:46 - 01:48 | Only SaberSim has this data |
| 01:48 - 01:52 | They got it from somewhere, find it |
| 01:53 - 01:54 | I want play by play data |
| 01:56 - 01:57 | Did anyone check the simulated vs actual ROIs? |
| 01:57 - 02:00 | Just spits out a lineup that is +300% EV and you all believe it? |
| 02:00 - 02:03 | Do you know anyone that wins at these rates over a decent sample? |
| 02:04 - 02:08 | No? Of course you don't because nobody does. |
| 02:08 - 02:13 | The very best DFS players have expected ROIs of 20-50% |
| 02:14 - 02:16 | Believing your lineup portfolio has >100% EV, you cannot be serious |
| 02:17 - 02:21 | You call yourselves sim bros but this is an emarrassment |
| 02:27 - 02:29 | The game is changing, but the sims |
| 02:30 - 02:34 | still need heart and a hand in the dirt |
| 02:34 - 02:36 | They must be based on reality. |
| 02:41 - 02:42 | And the distributions |
| 02:43 - 02:47 | Have you all ever looked at a game log |
| 02:48 - 02:53 | Do WR fantasy points look like a bell curve to anybody? |
| 02:54 - 02:56 | Maybe if you are a freshman comp sci student |
| 02:56 - 02:59 | Or live in rural South Carolina |
| 03:00 - 03:02 | Which idiot was in charge of these distributions |
| 03:04 - 03:07 | It's okay, normal distributions work in some sports |
| 03:14 - 03:16 | Cutsweats has had accurate contest simulations for years |
| 03:19 - 03:23 | It can't be that hard to do |
| 03:25 - 03:26 | Someone register for RPS, SIN, and RGP |
| 03:31 - 03:33 | I know these sites may have had some drama about who owns what |
| 03:40 - 03:46 | But they don't rely on spreadsheet nerds to tell them who to play |
| 03:46 - 03:49 | They pick winners |
| 03:53 - 03:56 | I saw it on twitter |